Shipments of goods out of China slumped in April, including a big decline in exports to the United States, as President Trump imposed sky-high tariffs.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Overall outbound shipments beat expectations by rising 8.1 per cent year-on-year, giving Beijing some relief ahead of ice-breaker tariff talks with the US this weekend.